The M&E DISPATCH // 199

Who doesn't love a shakedown just before the weekend?

August 07, 2026

The Friday Dispatch

Hey Everyone,

This is the last one of these. Tonight the new site goes live, and the way I do this changes with it. The week didn't slow down to mark the occasion, so here are the notes one more time, roughly in the order I wrote them.

  • Oil ran the tape backwards this week. Last Friday Brent closed above $90. Monday, Trump said he'd called off a planned strike after a request from Tehran, and Brent lost 4.7% to settle at $83.77. (CNBC) Then losses of more than 5% in each of the next two sessions. Thursday it snapped back more than 4% to $82.8. Brent is sitting near $82 to $83 as I write this. Second week running that the market fully priced a peace and then unpriced it. CNBC + 2

  • The Hormuz terms are the story, not the headline. The draft in front of Iran's parliament would bar US and Israeli vessels from the strait, require countries deemed hostile to pay compensation before passage, and impose penalties equal to 20% of a vessel's cargo value. Full reopening stays contingent on the US lifting its maritime blockade. (Trading Economics) The Iran-Oman route on the table is temporary, two to four months. Nobody is reopening anything. They're renting it out. TRADING ECONOMICSTRADING ECONOMICS

  • Suncor, Monday. Matched its record adjusted funds from operations at $5.3 billion, set an all-time per-share record of $4.52, generated $4.0 billion in free funds flow at a per-share record of $3.38, more than quadruple last year. Returned nearly $1.8 billion, and is taking monthly buybacks from $350 million to $500 million starting this month. (BOE Report) Third buyback increase since December. BOE Report

  • Canadian Natural, Thursday. Eight new operational and financial records. Production around 1.68 million BOE/d, up 18%. Adjusted net earnings of $4.6 billion, adjusted funds flow of $6.9 billion, roughly $4.0 billion returned, and 2026 guidance raised for the second time on the back of a $761 million Peace River buy without touching the capital budget. (CNRL) Twenty-six consecutive years of dividend growth. Nobody in Calgary is going to say the quiet part about why, so I won't either. TipRanksCnrl

  • Equinox closed Orla and immediately spent money. Board approved a $436 million Phase 2 at Valentine in central Newfoundland, taking the mill to about 13,700 tonnes a day and average production to roughly 223,000 ounces a year, complete late 2028. (Northern Miner) The dividend went up 50% the same day. Two weeks from shareholder vote to shovels-and-cheque. Somebody had that decision drafted. The Northern MinerGlobeNewswire

  • Washington banned exports of tungsten scrap and black mass. Effective August 27, US sellers must allocate 100% of monthly sales domestically, under the Defense Production Act, for about a year. (Resource Recycling) The problem is capacity: the US can't recycle everything it produces, and Li-Cycle and Ascend Elements both went bankrupt in the last 18 months. Watch where the redirected material goes, because some of it goes north. Resource RecyclingWSAU

  • Gold went the other way from oil, again. Spot touched $4,295 Thursday, the highest since June, on soft payrolls and Hormuz deal hopes. (CNBC) Up about 4% on the week. Peace is bad for oil and good for the metal, which tells you what gold has actually been pricing all year. CNBCForbes

  • Jobs, this morning. Canada added 75,000 in July against a 15,000 consensus, and unemployment fell to a two-year low. Down to 6.4%, though wage growth decelerated to 2.8%, roughly the rate of inflation. (BNN Bloomberg) A recovery that pays the same as standing still is still a recovery. Barely. Yahoo!BNN Bloomberg

  • August 19 is twelve days away. The Section 338 tariffs hit nearly $20 billion in Canadian goods at 50%, including USMCA-compliant ones, using a law that hasn't been touched in seventy years. (Wiley) Oil, gas, critical minerals and potash are exempt. They built the wall around everything except the part of the economy this list covers. Draw your own conclusion about leverage. WileyAl Jazeera

  • Watch item. It is August. Marten Falls Community Access Road was supposed to see shovels "as soon as August 2026." The federal comment period on the draft Impact Assessment Report closed July 6 and the agency is still finalizing. (IAAC) I'll be tracking that on the new site. Superior North NewsCanadian Impact Assessment Registry

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New site comes online tonight, for those looking to score a last minute deal on a Patron spot, or want to know what a Patron spot is, hit reply.

-Lee