THE DISPATCH

The Friday Dispatch

🟡 Precious Metals

• Silver at ~$76 USD/oz — still up 127% year-over-year; BMO says silver outperforming on risk appetite return

⛽ Energy & Oil Markets

• Brent crude falls to ~$92/barrel Friday — down nearly 19% for the month of May on ceasefire deal reports

• WTI at ~$87–88/barrel — down 16.5% for May, biggest weekly drop since April

• US and Iran "mostly agreed" on 60-day MOU — would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch nuclear talks, pending Trump approval

• JD Vance: deal is "close" but "not there yet" — Trump has not yet signed off

• Iran would have 30 days to clear mines from the strait under the proposed framework; US naval blockade to be eased correspondingly

🍁 Canada

• Cameco confirms McArthur River and Key Lake back at full production — 2026 output plan of 19.5–21.5M lbs U3O8 unchanged

• Iran war squeezes acid and aluminum supply chains — WoodMac warns more than half of seaborne sulphur trade disrupted, 11M bbl/d of crude offline

• Mosaic withdraws 2026 phosphate output forecast and curtails production — Iran war driving sulphur and input costs beyond viable range

🔋 Critical Minerals & Battery Metals

• Cameco's $2.6B uranium supply deal with India now in effect — 22M lbs delivered 2027–2035 as Asian buyers diversify away from disrupted energy markets

• Denison Mines under construction at Phoenix ISR — Canada's first new uranium mine since Cigar Lake now breaking ground in Saskatchewan

• NexGen's Rook I CNSC decision expected in June — $2.2B project would be one of the largest uranium mines ever built in Canada

• Teck's Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension actively under construction — Canada's largest copper mine extended to 2046

💥 Conflict Watch

• Day 91 of the Iran war: US and Iran near 60-day ceasefire extension deal — formal nuclear talks expected to follow

• Framework would declare Hormuz shipping "unrestricted" — no tolls, no harassment, and Iran pledges not to pursue a nuclear weapon

• Iran's IRGC disputes final deal terms — Iranian state media says nothing is confirmed, key sticking points remain

• 30+ vessels crossed Hormuz in 24 hours this week — first signs of traffic returning, but mines remain in the water

🌍 Geopolitics & Trade

• CUSMA formal review begins July 1 — critical minerals and energy at the centre of what Washington wants from Canada

• Korea's Hanwha sweetens bid for Canada's submarine contract — offering rockets and industrial co-investment as competition intensifies

• Iran war exposing fragility of Western aluminum and acid supply chains — structural risk for Canadian miners beyond just diesel costs

// NOTES FROM THE NORTH

Oil is down 20% in a month. That's not a dip. That's the market pricing in the end of a war.

The deal isn't signed yet. Trump hasn't approved it. Iran's IRGC is disputing the terms. There are still mines in the strait. But the direction is clear enough that Brent has already given back most of what it gained when the shooting started. Traders don't wait for signatures.

If the 60-day MOU holds, and that's still a real if,  here's what changes for Canadian mining and energy: diesel costs come down, operating margins recover, the inflationary pressure that's been pushing central banks to pause rate cuts starts to ease. Cameco's supply chain, already back online after the Smoothstone bridge got sorted this week, runs uninterrupted through a market that still needs every pound of Canadian uranium it can get.

Here's what doesn't change: the world's appetite for what Canada has in the ground. 

The Iran war didn't create that demand,  it just made it louder. And it revealed something about sulphur, aluminum, fertilizer inputs, acid supply chains that the industry will be studying for years. Mosaic pulled its entire 2026 phosphate forecast because they couldn't price their inputs. That's not a Hormuz problem. That's a concentration-of-supply problem. And Canada sits on the answer to most of it.

The Cameco update this week was quietly significant. McArthur River and Key Lake are fully back. Production plan unchanged. The 2026 outlook holds. Just weeks after a bridge collapsed and took out their main supply road, the operation is running like it never stopped. That's what well-run looks like.

Now we wait on Trump…

Have a good weekend, I’m off to watch some hockey!