THE DISPATCH

The Friday Dispatch

🟡 Precious Metals

• Gold trading around ~$4,538 USD/oz this morning — holding firm as new US strikes in Iran send safe-haven bids higher

• Gold in CAD at ~$6,247/oz — down slightly from last week's high but still near record territory for Canadian producers

• Silver at ~$75.90 USD/oz — up 127% year-over-year, still considered undervalued relative to gold by most analysts

• Goldman Sachs end-2026 gold forecast remains at $5,400/oz — debasement and central bank demand unchanged

⛽ Energy & Oil Markets

• US Central Command confirms "self-defense strikes" on Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz this morning

• Iran claims it shot down a US drone and fired on a US fighter jet — ceasefire technically still in place, per Washington

• Brent rebounding — up ~2.5% this morning on Hormuz risk after three days of declines

• WTI settling around $98–99 USD/barrel as markets price in prolonged strait uncertainty

• Rubio: "A deal with Iran is still possible" — but warns talks may take a few more days

• Trump issues ultimatum: Iran must surrender enriched uranium or there is no deal

🍁 Canadian Focus

• Temporary bridge over the Smoothstone River expected to be completed by end of May — Cameco's Key Lake and McArthur River restarts now in sight

• Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways has contractor on-site — crossing targeted for completion before June

• CUSMA formal review begins July 1 — Carney has secured 85% of Canada-US trade tariff-free, but the hard negotiations start now

• Rising diesel and fuel costs from the Hormuz shock now flowing through to Canadian mining operating costs — structural, not temporary

🔋 Critical Minerals & Battery Metals

• BNN Bloomberg: Warning to critical minerals buyers — avoid oversupply in certain metals as not all critical minerals are created equal

• Denison Mines began construction at Phoenix in March — Canada's first new uranium mine since Cigar Lake in 2014

• NexGen's Rook I CNSC decision expected by June — $2.2B project, four-year construction timeline

• Cameco's $2.6B uranium supply deal with India — 22 million pounds from 2027 to 2035 — now in effect

• Copper up 33% year-over-year — Teck's Highland Valley Mine Life Extension actively under construction, extending Canada's largest copper mine to 2046

💥 Conflict Watch

• US forces struck Iranian missile launch sites and minesweeping boats in southern Iran overnight — the third exchange of fire during the ceasefire period

• Iran's President Pezeshkian praises military response — calls US strikes a "significant breach" of the ceasefire

• Iran reportedly attempting to mine the Strait of Hormuz — the trigger for this morning's US strikes

• 30+ vessels crossed the Strait in the last 24 hours — a positive sign, but the situation remains hour-to-hour

🌍 Geopolitics & Trade

• Iranian FM meets Pakistani officials in Tehran today for US-backed talks — uranium stockpile and Hormuz control remain the two sticking points

• ISW: Iran using ceasefire to normalize permanent control over the strait — each day the blockade holds, Tehran builds its case

• Canada-US trade officials exchange remarks as CUSMA review approaches — no date set for formal trilateral talks yet

• LNG Canada Phase 2 FID timeline: Ottawa and B.C. co-operation agreement in place — partners expected to decide before year end

// NOTES FROM THE NORTH

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