THE DISPATCH

The Friday Dispatch

Mining & Energy Friday Dispatch | Vol. 9 | May 8th, 2026

Three US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday and came under attack from Iranian drones, missiles, and small boats. The US hit back — striking Iranian ports at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Trump says the ceasefire is "still in effect." Iran says the US violated it. The UAE woke up to drone and missile strikes this morning. Iran has now created a formal "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to collect tolls and vet vessels trying to pass through Hormuz, which a shipping intelligence firm described flatly as "right now the strait is closed."

Gold is at $4,732. Silver is at $81. Copper is up 36% year-over-year. Uranium is at $86.25/lb. Suncor just reported $2.1 billion in Q1 profit and record production. Canada just funded North America's first cobalt sulfate refinery. And Alberta's West Coast pipeline application is due at the Major Projects Office by July 1.

It's a lot. Let's get into it.

🛠️ Featured Profiles

🟡 Precious Metals & Silver

• Gold at $4,732 and climbing as US-Iran exchange fire — Yahoo Finance / Fortune
  Gold opened at $4,682.50 Friday morning and climbed to $4,732.60 by 6:45 a.m. ET as news broke of the overnight Hormuz clash. The all-time high of $5,589 from January is back in view. Experts are now projecting a move to $4,800–$4,850 in the near term, with safe-haven demand structurally supported as long as the conflict remains unresolved.

• Silver at $81 — up 147% since last year — Silver Institute / GoldSilver.com
  Silver surged 147% in 2025 — one of its strongest years on record — and hit a nominal all-time high of $121.64 in January 2026. It has since pulled back but is consolidating above $80, with J.P. Morgan forecasting an average of $81/oz for the full year. Analysts are watching the $85 level as the next key threshold. Industrial demand, geopolitical safe-haven buying, and defence sector procurement are all pointing the same direction.

• Copper up 36% year-over-year — now at $6.26/lb — Trading Economics / MarketWatch
  Copper rose to $6.26/lb on May 8, up 2.18% on the day and 35.91% above where it was a year ago. The structural bid — electrification, defence spending, data centre buildout — is not going away. At these prices, previously marginal Canadian copper projects are looking very different on a spreadsheet.

• Uranium at $86.25/lb — up 23% year-over-year — ANS / Trading Economics / Cameco
  Uranium spot hit $86.35/lb at end of April per Cameco data, and has held steady into May. Rising reactor demand and tightening supply are dual structural tailwinds. Canada's Cameco is central to that story, and the long-term institutional bid for uranium equities is growing.

⚡ Energy & Oil Markets

• US strikes Iranian ports at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island after destroyers come under attack in Hormuz — CBS News
  Three US Navy destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz were attacked Thursday by Iranian drones, missiles, and small boats. US Central Command responded with "self-defense strikes" on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm — two Iranian ports at the entrance to the strait that house a significant portion of Iran's naval forces. Trump confirmed the US ships were unharmed and that Iran sustained "great damage." The ceasefire, technically, remains declared. In practice, it is fraying badly.

• Iran creates "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to tax and vet all Hormuz traffic — shipping firm says "the strait is closed" — NPR
  Iran has formally established a new government body to approve ship transits and collect tolls through the Strait of Hormuz. Lloyd's List stated bluntly: "Right now the strait is closed." The US has not recognized the authority. The naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full force.

• UAE hit by drone and missile strikes Friday morning — AP News
  The United Arab Emirates' Ministry of Defense confirmed its air defenses were "actively engaging" with a missile and drone attack Friday morning. A Chinese-crewed oil tanker was also attacked near the strait — apparently the first such strike on a non-belligerent vessel since the conflict began. The Gulf states are now inside the wire.

• Crude oil at ~$94–105/barrel as war premium reprices — Trading Economics
  WTI crude rose to $94.83/bbl on May 8 — still well below the $126 peak hit on May 1, but 55% above where it was a year ago. The month-over-month decline reflected ceasefire optimism that is now being unwound in real time. Canadian producers are operating at extraordinary margins.

🇨🇦 Canada: Building While the World Burns

• Suncor Q1 2026: $2.1 billion profit, record production of 875,000 bbl/d — BNN Bloomberg
  Net earnings of $2.1 billion for Q1 2026, up from $1.69 billion in Q1 2025. Earnings per share came in at $1.77. Gross revenues surged to $15.42 billion. Adjusted operating earnings hit $2.3 billion. The company returned $1.5 billion to shareholders — $825 million in buybacks and $712 million in dividends. Record production. Record refining throughput. Record sales of refined products. The bull case for Canadian oil sands is delivering.

• Canadian Natural Resources Q1 2026: $2.4B adjusted net earnings, record North American E&P production — Boereport
  CNQ reported adjusted net earnings of $2.4 billion ($1.17/share) and adjusted funds flow of $4.4 billion ($2.10/share). Record quarterly North American E&P production of ~773,000 BOE/d. Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading at industry-leading operating costs of US$17.30/bbl. $1.5 billion returned to shareholders including $1.2 billion in dividends. Two of Canada's biggest producers just put up numbers that would have seemed optimistic twelve months ago.

• Federal government invests $20M in Electra Battery Materials — North America's first cobalt sulfate refinery — Canadian Mining Journal
  A $20 million federal investment through the Strategic Response Fund in Electra Battery Materials' $99.4 million refinery expansion in Temiskaming Shores, Ontario. At full capacity, the facility will supply cobalt sulfate for the equivalent of up to one million electric vehicles annually. It will be the only cobalt sulfate refinery in North America — reducing reliance on imported battery materials for EV, defence, and semiconductor supply chains simultaneously.

• Alberta's West Coast pipeline application due at Major Projects Office by July 1 — Alberta.ca
  Alberta's government is preparing its submission to the federal Major Projects Office for a proposed Indigenous co-owned oil pipeline to the northwest coast of British Columbia — due July 1, 2026. With Trans Mountain at full capacity and oil between $95–126/barrel this year, the strategic and economic case for a second west coast outlet has never been stronger or more obvious.

🔋 Critical Minerals & Battery Metals

• China's rare earth export control suspension expires November 10 — new licensing rules already tightening supply — Mining Technology
  Six months until the hard deadline. Analysis notes "limited progress in reducing global dependence" on Chinese supply. New 2026 licensing rules have already added controls for key rare earth compounds. Extraterritorial enforcement provisions — allowing China to regulate overseas use of controlled materials — activate at the same November deadline. The window to build alternative supply chains is open. It will not stay open indefinitely.

• 13 major projects referred to Canada's Major Projects Office — 5 of them mining — Torys Q2 2026
  The federal government has referred 13 projects to the MPO for expedited approval — five are mining projects. The Building Canada Act's MPO framework is becoming the de facto fast lane for nationally significant resource development. Twenty-one mines and minerals projects are currently in progress for federally designated Impact Assessment status. The permitting machinery is moving.

• Silver in its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit — Silver Institute
  Global silver investment is projected to remain strong in 2026, underpinned by a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit. Industrial demand from solar, EVs, and defence electronics continues to grow. Silver is currently consolidating around $81 — experts project a move above $85 before year end, with a path to $100 by 2030 cited by multiple forecasters.

• China tightens rare earth grip with strict new enforcement rules — Mining.com
  China accounts for more than two-thirds of global rare earth mine production and near-monopoly refining capacity. New 2026 enforcement rules formalize extraterritorial reach. The Andersen Institute analysis describes these measures as elevating rare earths into "China's primary coercive instrument." Canada's window to build an alternative supply chain is open. It is not permanent.

💥 Conflict Watch

• Day 69 of the Iran war: US and Iran exchange fire in Hormuz — NY Times
  The conflict that began February 28 with Operation Epic Fury reached a new flashpoint Thursday. Three US carrier strike groups are now operating simultaneously in the Middle East — the first such deployment in decades. Trump has warned Iran to sign a deal "fast," threatening it would "end up as one big glow" if full hostilities resume. Both sides claim the truce is technically in effect. Neither is behaving like it is.

• US and Iran still in contact over peace proposal — Tehran's response expected "within hours" — Al Jazeera
  Despite the overnight exchange of fire, US officials are expecting Tehran's response to the latest peace proposal within hours. The proposal reportedly includes a framework for phased sanctions relief, nuclear verification, and a permanent Hormuz reopening mechanism. Multiple mediators — including Oman and Qatar — remain active. The gap on nuclear enrichment remains wide.

• Chinese tanker attacked near Hormuz — conflict beginning to pull in non-belligerents — NPR
  A Chinese-crewed oil tanker was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz Friday — the first such strike on a non-US, non-Iranian vessel since the conflict began. China has significant economic interests in Iranian oil and Hormuz passage. Its reaction — or non-reaction — will signal a great deal about where this conflict goes next.

🌍 Geopolitics & Trade

• Carney: "Canada will not make any more concessions" ahead of CUSMA talks — CTV News
  Carney drew a firm line this week: Canada will seek concessions from the US but will not make any further concessions to get Washington to the table. The Americans are reportedly demanding an "entry fee" of policy concessions before formal negotiations begin. Canada's chief trade negotiator noted the review will likely extend well past the July 1 deadline. Carney is playing it from a position of demonstrated strength.

• Carney coordinates with Mexico's Sheinbaum on joint CUSMA approach — CBC
  Carney and Mexican President Sheinbaum spoke last week to align strategy heading into the CUSMA review. A Mexican trade delegation is conducting a three-city tour of Canada this week. Both nations are approaching the review as a coordinated bloc, aware the US may seek to negotiate bilaterally to split them. The joint posture strengthens both countries at the table.

• China's rare earth export controls: a coercive instrument with a November deadline — Andersen Institute
  China's new enforcement framework formalizes extraterritorial reach over rare earth supply chains that include Chinese-sourced materials — wherever they are in the world. Beijing can now regulate the overseas use of materials and technologies containing Chinese rare earths. Canada's window to build alternative supply chains is open. It is not permanent.

// NOTES FROM THE NORTH

Day 69 of the Iran war. Three US destroyers running the Strait under fire. A Chinese tanker hit for the first time. Iran building a toll booth at the throat of the global oil supply.

Canada, well, w’re reporting record production numbers. Funding the first cobalt refinery on the continent. Queuing up a new pipeline application. Telling the US it won't pay an entry fee to sit at its own negotiating table.

There's a version of this story where Canada spent this crisis watching from the sidelines, dependent, reactive, and without leverage. That's not the version that's playing out.

The numbers this week tell a different story. $2.1 billion profit at Suncor. $2.4 billion at CNQ. A cobalt refinery in Northern Ontario that will supply a million EV batteries a year. A pipeline application to the Pacific due in seven weeks.

The world is paying $95 to $126 for every barrel of oil we produce. It's paying a 36% premium for our copper versus a year ago. It's scrambling for the cobalt, lithium, graphite, and rare earths we're sitting on.

We don't get to choose the circumstances that create the moment. We only choose what we do when the moment arrives.

Canada is choosing to build.

That's the right call.

-Lee

"In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.
- Albert Einstein