THE DISPATCH

The Friday Dispatch

Mining & Energy Friday Dispatch | Vol. 5 | April 17th, 2026

Iran just declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" — this morning, less than an hour ago. Gold is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain. Carney woke up Monday with a minority government and went to bed Tuesday with a majority. And copper quietly hit a six-week high while everyone was watching the war.

A lot happened. Let's go.

🛠️ Featured Profiles

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🟡 Precious Metals

Gold is up ~1.65% today to $4,867/oz and on pace for a fourth straight weekly gain. The structural bid isn't going anywhere — even as ceasefire optimism briefly pulls safe-haven demand off the boil, it keeps finding buyers.

• Gold rises above $4,850 as Hormuz declared open, eyes fourth weekly gain — Trading Economics Gold is now on track to end the week 0.8% higher, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations that a more lasting US–Iran agreement could reduce inflation risks. TRADING ECONOMICS The all-time high set in late January is back in view — and the structural case for gold being the sanest thing in a portfolio right now hasn't weakened.

• Copper outlook strengthens as long-term price assumptions climb 60% since 2020 — Mining.com A Plusmining analysis of 300+ mining studies shows base-case copper assumptions have risen from ~$3/lb in 2015–2020 to ~$4.80/lb in early 2026 — still generally trailing spot prices, but suggesting companies are not materially over-optimistic despite raising long-term expectations. MINING.COM Projects once shelved are coming back to life.

• Canadian Copper secures $96M for Murray Brook project in New Brunswick — The Northern Miner Canadian Copper (CSE: CCI) has secured up to $96 million to more than cover initial capital costs for the Murray Brook project in New Brunswick The Northern Miner — a copper-zinc-lead VMS deposit in the Bathurst Mining Camp getting a serious look now that base metals prices have made previously marginal projects look a lot more interesting.

• China's largest rare earth producer raises prices as geopolitical tension tightens market — The Northern Miner One of China's biggest rare earth producers has hiked prices significantly, underscoring tightening market conditions and high geopolitical tensions in the midst of a raging conflict in the Middle East. The Northern Miner The November 2026 expiry on China's suspended export controls is starting to cast a shadow forward.

⚡ Energy & Oil Markets

Oil dropped sharply this morning on the Hormuz news. The US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon appears to be holding — for now. It's a lot of moving parts for a Friday.

• Iran declares Strait of Hormuz "completely open" — stocks surge, oil drops — NBC News / Al Jazeera This morning, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open for commercial vessels for the remaining period of the ceasefire, with ships required to transit on a coordinated route. NBC News Trump thanked Iran on Truth Social. Then clarified the US blockade of Iranian ports "will remain in full force" until a full peace deal is done. Markets surged. Oil dropped. It's complicated.

• Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire now in effect — clears path toward broader Iran deal — CBS News / ABC7 A 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon took effect Thursday at 5 p.m. EDT, with tens of thousands of displaced Lebanese already moving south CBS News — and Iran linking the Lebanon ceasefire directly to its Hormuz reopening announcement today. The US and Iran are considering a further two-week extension to the original ceasefire to allow more time for a permanent deal.

• US-Iran ceasefire extension under consideration ahead of Tuesday expiry — Bloomberg The US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more time to negotiate a peace deal, with mediators seeking technical talks to overcome the most contentious issues — including reopening Hormuz and the future of Iran's nuclear program. Bloomberg The original truce expires Tuesday. This morning's Hormuz announcement changes the calculus significantly.

• Copper hits six-week high on Iran talk optimism — Mining.com Industrial metals have been whipsawed since the Middle East war erupted at the end of February — initially hit by fears of soaring energy costs, before partially recovering on signs the conflict may be nearing an end. MINING.COM Copper settled at $13,284.50/t on the LME earlier this week — its highest in more than a month. Today's Hormuz news will push that further.

🇨🇦 Canada: Carney Gets His Majority

This is the headline of the domestic week — and it matters for the sector. A majority government can actually move legislation. The question is which legislation.

• Carney Liberals win all three byelections, secure first-ever minority-to-majority via floor crossings — CBC / Globe and Mail Monday night, Prime Minister Mark Carney clinched a majority government after three byelection wins in central Canada — a result that will give the governing party full control of the House of Commons, setting the Liberals up to hold power until the next scheduled general election in October 2029. CBC News It has never happened before in Canada that a minority converted to majority through floor crossings and byelections alone.

• Carney announces suspension of federal fuel excise tax through September — Al Jazeera In his first post-majority move, Carney announced Canada will suspend the federal fuel excise tax on petrol and diesel from April 20 to September 7, expected to cut petrol prices by about 10 cents Canadian per litre and diesel by four cents Al Jazeera — a direct response to the Iran-driven energy price shock hammering household budgets.

• What a majority means for mining: faster permitting legislation, CUSMA leverage, and the $2B critical minerals fund — various With committee control now in hand, the Liberals can move the Building Canada Act and associated permitting reforms without the same opposition friction. The $2 billion Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund — announced at PDAC — is designed to accelerate development through equity investments, loan guarantees, and offtake agreements. National Observer A majority makes all of that easier to actually deploy.

🔋 Critical Minerals & Battery Metals

Canada has the minerals. It just can't get the mines built fast enough. A majority government and ~$4,867 gold might finally change that math.

• Canada needs 40x more lithium by 2040 — and it still takes 17 years to permit a mine — The Hub A sharp piece this week laid out the fundamental tension in Canada's critical minerals story: the IEA projects demand for lithium could grow more than 40 times by 2040, while graphite, cobalt and nickel could increase 20 to 25 times The Hub — and Canada, sitting on enormous reserves of most of them, still averages 17 years from discovery to production. A majority government with a permitting reform agenda is the only realistic way to change that number.

• Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% — next decision April 29 — Bank of Canada The BoC held in March, citing the Iran oil shock colliding with domestic weakness — GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 2025, unemployment rose to 6.7% in February, and the Bank noted the sharp increase in global energy prices will push up total CPI in coming months. Bank of Canada The April 29 decision is now the one to watch — with Hormuz reopening today, the energy inflation pressure that was holding the Bank's hand may ease faster than expected.

• RZOLV Technologies hits 97% gold recovery from complex copper-gold ore — Canadian Mining Journal RZOLV Technologies achieved approximately 97% gold recovery from complex copper-gold ore without requiring pretreatment Canadian Mining Journal — a meaningful processing milestone for a sector where recovery rates on refractory ores have long been the bottleneck between deposit and cash flow.

• Centerra Gold's Mount Milligan secures permits through 2035 — Global Mining Review Centerra Gold confirmed that its Mount Milligan Mine in central BC received an amended environmental assessment and all related permits allowing continuation of operations through 2035 Global Mining Review — a clean permit extension for one of BC's larger copper-gold producers, and a sign that the province's permitting machinery is functioning on operating mines even while new approvals lag.

💥 Conflict Watch

The most volatile morning of the war, in the best possible direction. For now.

• Iran FM declares Hormuz open; Trump hails it but keeps naval blockade in place — NBC News / ABC7 Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced the Strait's opening on social media Friday morning: "In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route." ABC7 Trump thanked Iran, called negotiations "going very quickly." The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains active. There are still mines in the water.

• Full timeline: How the ceasefire went from announcement to violation to partial reopening — Wikipedia / CBS The compressed version: ceasefire announced April 8 with Hormuz as a condition, Iran immediately began charging tolls, Islamabad talks failed April 12, US announced naval blockade April 13, with CENTCOM clarifying it would blockade ships entering or leaving Iranian ports but "will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait to and from non-Iranian ports." Wikipedia Today's announcement is the first clean reopening signal since the conflict began.

• Oil still above pre-war levels even with today's drop — structural energy premium remains — Trading Economics The announcement triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, helping to ease inflationary pressures — at least in the short term. Despite improved sentiment, the broader situation remains fragile, with Trump stating the US naval blockade will remain in full force until a comprehensive agreement is reached. TRADING ECONOMICS Pre-war WTI was ~$67. Nobody is back there yet.

🌍 Geopolitics & Trade

Carney has a majority. The CUSMA review is live. Canada just got a domestic political platform stable enough to actually negotiate from.

• Carney's minerals leverage: "a potential opportunity for the US, not an assured one" — The Deep Dive This framing from last December has aged well into the majority context: Carney has consistently said US access to Canada's critical minerals is "a potential opportunity for the United States, but it's not an assured opportunity" — and that Europe and other partners are "very interested in participating in those value chains." The Deep Dive A majority gives him the domestic runway to hold that line through the CUSMA review.

• Canada secured $12.1 billion in critical minerals partnerships at PDAC — Canada.ca The second round of the Critical Minerals Production Alliance announced 30 new partnerships and investments to unlock $12.1 billion in critical minerals projects with 12 allied partners Canada.ca — including MOUs with the EU, India, and Greenland. Ottawa is building an alternative customer base. Quietly, but it's being built.

• China's rare earth export controls still suspended through November — but the clock is running — Rare Earth Exchanges / EU Parliament The November 10, 2026 expiry on China's suspended rare earth export controls is now seven months away. The suspension was part of an agreement reached during the China-US economic and trade talks in Kuala Lumpur China Briefing — but geopolitical conditions have shifted considerably since then, and no one is treating the suspension as permanent.

// NOTES FROM THE NORTH

Nearly two dozen calls this week, PR companies, marketing managers, owners, CEOs. Across the board, this summer is looking up.

Not corporate reporting optimism. The real kind. Like talking to my kids about a new pair of skates or hearing about the what the moon looks like from the other side - from the mouth of a Canadian Astronaut.

Giddy, joyful, boastful optimism.

You can’t help but feel like the we have real thrust behind our nation right now and the only question is are you going to strap yourself to the top or watch others take off.

We’re not just selling into the domestic market anymore - we're selling to the world, and the world is buying.

We’re the stable trading partner the world needs now more than ever.

We’ve got the goods, the people and the drive to get it done.

The Petrodollar had a good run, but it’s time to move on from it…

Viva La Loonie!

Enjoy the weekend.

-Lee

"Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work." - Thomas Edison