THE DISPATCH

Part 1 of a 10 part series on the global reshaping.

The rise of the Medium Countries.

When Mark Carney stood before the World Economic Forum this week and declared "the old order is not coming back," he wasn't offering diplomatic fluff. He was articulating what mining executives have known for months: the era of American-led globalization has ended, and medium-sized countries are carving out a third path between Washington and Beijing.

Within hours, President Trump rescinded Canada's invitation to his "Board of Peace"—petty retaliation that inadvertently proved Carney's point. The old playbook, where middle powers line up behind a superpower patron, is dead.

Canada's response? Sign more deals with China, Qatar, and the European Union. Twelve trade and security agreements across four continents in six months. This isn't diversification. It's strategic repositioning.

The China Breakthrough

On January 15-16, Ottawa finalized a landmark strategic partnership with Beijing that will unlock $7 billion in agricultural exports. Canola tariffs drop from 84% to 15% by March 1. Beef exports resume after a five-year ban. Canada will allow 49,000 Chinese EVs annually at 6.1% tariff, down from 100%—a move that has Ontario auto fuming but Saskatchewan farmers celebrating.

For mining, the implications are immediate. Canada exported $9.5 billion in minerals to China in 2024: coal ($2.8B), iron ore ($2.4B), copper ($2B), and potash ($500M). Stable trade relations remove the uncertainty that's plagued project financing.​

Meanwhile, the Trans-Mountain Expansion—operational since May 2024—has turned China into Canada's top Asian oil destination. Asian exports now average $571 million monthly, with Canadian producers securing pricing premiums over U.S. sales.​

The European Defence Bridge

If the China deal was about market access, the EU partnership is about security. In November, Canada became the only non-European nation to join SAFE (Security Action for Europe), the EU's $244 billion defence rearmament fund. Canadian defence manufacturers now have preferential access to European procurement contracts.

For mining, this means European battery plants desperate for non-Chinese lithium, nickel, and cobalt will see Canada as the preferred supplier. The EU's Green Deal Industrial Plan needs massive mineral inputs, and Canada offers the "trusted supplier" premium.

Qatar: The Gulf Pivot

Carney's January 17-18 visit to Doha delivered Canada's first-ever prime ministerial visit to Qatar. Two-way trade exceeds $325 million, with Qatar's sovereign wealth targeting Canadian critical minerals projects. A Foreign Investment Protection Agreement concludes this summer, positioning Canada as Qatar's gateway to North American markets.

The Medium Countries Moment

Carney's core insight is that "middle powers negotiating bilaterally with a hegemon negotiate from weakness". When medium countries compete to accommodate Washington or Beijing, they accept subordination dressed as sovereignty.

The alternative is "variable geometry"—purpose-built coalitions where middle powers combine on specific issues. Australia is leveraging resource dominance to maintain strategic optionality. South Korea negotiated better U.S. tariff terms while deepening Asian ties. ASEAN is articulating a vision of collective middle power agency.

Canada's advantage is resource endowment. We control $153 billion in annual mineral exports—21% of total merchandise. We produce 60+ minerals from 200+ active mines. We hold vast reserves of precisely the materials the world cannot function without: copper for electrification, lithium for batteries, uranium for clean energy, potash for food security.

This is hard power. And medium countries are learning to wield it.

This Series: The Medium Countries Rise

Over the next ten editions, the Canadian Mining & Energy Dispatch will map how this geopolitical realignment creates opportunities for Canadian producers, investors, and exporters.

Next Edition (Tuesday, January 28): The China Pivot—What Just Happened & What Comes Next

We'll break down the full China deal: timelines for canola and beef exports, the EV trade-off and its joint-venture requirements, which mining commodities benefit most, and how long the partnership might last given Beijing's track record of unreliability.

Then we'll explore the European defence bridge, the Indo-Pacific strategy (India negotiations launching February, ASEAN targeting 2026 conclusion), infrastructure projects enabling export diversification, and the critical minerals strategy that makes Canada indispensable.

The world is being remade. Canada isn't waiting for permission from Washington to participate. The medium countries are rising, the deals are signed, and the old order that demanded subordination is crumbling.

Welcome to the new world order. Population: everyone except the hegemons who think they still run the show.

// THE DIRT

A Closing Thought

NOTES FROM THE NORTH

I think I’m about to learn first hand what a “Lake Effect Winter Storm” looks like. Between the biting cold and snow that suddenly blows in off the lake, it makes Kootenay Winter seem enjoyable by contrast.

Good thing we have a pair of home games this weekend.

-Lee

Nostalgia - The feeling you get when your youth says hello.