THE DISPATCH

This is, simply put, un-believably unprecedented.

One year later, here we are.

One year later, here we are. Trump just shared an AI-generated photo of North America with Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela all under the U.S. flag. The caption reads like a real estate listing. The map shows our entire country draped in stars and stripes, sitting next to Greenland and Venezuela like they’re already subdivisions.​

This isn’t just social media trolling. This is the same month U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Maduro in a midnight raid, flew him to New York, and Trump declared America would “run” Venezuela and control its oil sales indefinitely. The same week Denmark deployed 200 troops to Greenland, with NATO’s chief Mark Rutte meeting Danish and Greenlandic officials to discuss a “joint NATO mission” after Trump refused to rule out military action to seize the territory.​

And here we are, watching a map that shows our flag gone.

What We Built While They Were Making Maps

Last week, Carney flew to Beijing and actually got something done. Chinese EV tariffs dropped from 100% to 6.1%. Canola relief fell from 84% to 15%. That’s real money back in Saskatchewan. The fine print targets a 50% increase in oil, gas, and uranium exports to China by 2030.​

The same week, Carney signed Canada’s first-ever sitting PM partnership with Qatar, trade, investment, defence. The trade minister was in Saudi Arabia locking in a mining MOU. The $50 billion Anglo Teck merger got approved with $4.5 billion in Canadian spending commitments built in. Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund dropped $500 million into Ivanhoe Mines for critical minerals. The G7 pledged $6.4 billion into 26 Canadian critical mineral projects.​

When Russia threatens uranium and nickel exports, Canada becomes the obvious hedge. When China dominates battery supply chains but Western governments want to “friendshore,” Canadian lithium, nickel, graphite, and cobalt become strategic assets.​

We’re building while they’re photoshopping.

Energy’s Pacific Pivot Is Real

Trans Mountain’s expansion proved its value the second it came online. China became a consistent destination for Canadian crude. Now Alberta and Ottawa signed an MOU for another 400,000 barrels per day targeting Asian markets.​

AltaGas’s REEF terminal is moving 133,000 b/d of propane and LPG to Asia. Ten to eleven days from Canada’s West Coast to China versus 25+ days from the U.S. Gulf Coast.​

Before 2019, we exported 100% of our propane to the U.S. Today, AltaGas provides 6% of China’s propane imports, 14% of South Korea’s, and 11% of Japan’s. That shift happened in under six years. That’s market share we built with actual ships, not AI images.​

The Question Nobody Wants to Ask

Here’s what keeps me up at night. Trump’s map shows Canada under the U.S. flag. Venezuela is already under U.S. control, with Trump saying they’ll “run” the country and “extract oil” until further notice. Greenland is facing a NATO mission that looks more like a Danish desperation move than an alliance strategy.​

If NATO’s sphere of influence is reshaping to include “protecting” Greenland from U.S. annexation, where does that leave Canada’s domestic product? Who actually controls our copper from Galore Creek, our uranium from Saskatchewan, our nickel from Crawford, our oil from Trans Mountain?

Carney committed Canada to NATO’s 5% GDP defence spending target, $150 billion annually. He explicitly said critical minerals infrastructure counts as dual-use for NATO. That’s brilliant. It lets us build export infrastructure with defence dollars justified by Arctic sovereignty.​

But what happens when the same NATO we’re counting on to defend Greenland is being asked by Trump to facilitate a “peaceful transfer” of the territory? What happens when the U.S. president who shares maps of annexed Canada also controls Venezuelan oil sales and is threatening Denmark with 25% tariffs until they hand over Greenland?​

Three Risks That Aren’t Theoretical Anymore

First, CUSMA is up for review in July. Trump already called it “irrelevant” and said Americans “don’t need” Canadian products. If that 90% tariff exemption disappears, every mine and energy project in Canada gets hit overnight.​

Second, execution risk. The Major Projects Office promises two-year permitting windows. But if Washington decides our sovereignty is negotiable, how long before “Indigenous consultation” becomes “U.S. State Department review”?​

Third, capital flight. While majors like Anglo Teck and Ivanhoe are getting funded because they’re too big to fail, the junior exploration scene is already starved. If global investors start pricing in sovereignty risk, that Canada might not control its own resources in five years, what happens to the next wave of discoveries?​

Who Controls Our Domestic Product?

The data shows Canadian energy exports to Indo-Pacific partners increased 470% in the last decade. That’s $15 billion annually now flowing west, not south. We built that.​

But we also just watched a U.S. president share a map showing our country as his territory. We watched NATO troops deploy to Greenland not to defend against Russia, but to defend against the alliance’s most powerful member. We watched Venezuela’s oil fall under U.S. control in a week.

One year later, here we are. We’ve built the pipelines, signed the deals, and secured the capital. But the question isn’t whether we can produce. The question is whether we’ll still own what we produce.

// THE DIRT

A Closing Thought

NOTES FROM THE NORTH

Listen, I’m not being doom and gloomy here, but we’re truly living through some wild times. Times that are making me question a lot about where I think we can be one year from now.

This is going to be a good year, it may be trying at times, but it’s going to be a good year.

Standing on the shore of Lake Ontario this morning, I was squinting really hard towards the sunrise and I’m almost certain I caught a glimmer of spring on the horizon.

Almost.

-Lee

“Karma Jujitsu, find us.” - Sign on the way to the rink, sometimes messaging just works.