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- The M&E Dispatch // 132
The M&E Dispatch // 132
And now, we take stock.
Lee Tengum
December 16, 2025
Hello Everyone,
As we close the books on 2025, we’re doing what every good business does in December: taking stock of the damage.
If you’ve felt like this year was a game of geopolitical whack-a-mole, you aren’t alone. Between the "February Shock" and the October lumber surprise, cross-border trade has been… spirited. But as we head into the holidays, the dust has settled enough to see the landscape clearly.
Here is the "State of the Union" on Trump’s tariffs as of this morning, December 16th.
Note: if you’re not watching what is happening right now in Belarus, you might want to take a quick look. I was going to touch on it, but that’s still unfolding. More to come I’m sure.
🌲 Softwood Lumber & Timber
The Status: 35-45% Tariff (Combined Duties)
The Verdict: 🟥 Critical
The Gist: The Commerce Department didn't just double down; they tripled down. Between the countervailing duties and the new "national security" add-on from October, Canadian wood is effectively taxed out of the market. This is currently adding about $20k to the cost of a new American home, a bill that U.S. homebuilders are paying through gritted teeth.
🏗️ Steel & Aluminum
The Status: 50% (Steel) / 25% (Aluminum)
The Verdict: 🟥 Critical
The Gist: Reimposed in June after talks stalled over Chinese trans-shipment fears. This is the big one for Ontario manufacturing. Supply chains that used to flow freely are now frozen or moving through expensive loopholes.
🪑 Finished Wood (Cabinets & Furniture)
The Status: 25% Tariff (Rising to 30-50%+ on Jan 1)
The Verdict: 🟧 High Risk
The Gist: A new front in the forestry war. If you export kitchen cabinets or furniture, get your shipments across the line before New Year’s Eve. The rate hikes scheduled for January 1st will make these products significantly harder to move.
🌾 Potash (Fertilizer)
The Status: 10% Tariff (Reduced from 25%)
The Verdict: 🟨 Manageable
The Gist: This is the "be careful what you wish for" tariff. Trump slapped 25% on it in February, U.S. farmers revolted, and it was quickly cut to 10%. Because the U.S. simply can't get potash elsewhere, American buyers are eating nearly 100% of this cost. A rare case where the "tax" is purely performative.
📦 The "General Tariff" (Non-USMCA Goods)
The Status: 25% Tariff
The Verdict: 🟨 Annoying
The Gist: If it’s made in North America (75% content), you’re safe. If you’re drop-shipping or assembling foreign components, you’re paying. This has become a massive paperwork headache for anyone whose supply chain touches Asia.
A look at 2026, ha, no chance. This is all much too fluid.
The "Universal Tariff" nightmare scenario (10% on everything) has mostly morphed into targeted strikes. Energy remains the golden child (0% tariff), flowing south freely because, frankly, they need the lights on.
As we look toward 2026, the strategy remains the same: Prove your origin. If you can prove it’s Canadian dirt, Canadian trees, or Canadian labour, you have a fighting chance. If not, budget for the surcharge.
Happy ‘Official’ start to the Holidays, and may your paperwork be ever in your favour.
// The Dirt
🔥 Top 3 Headlines to Watch
🛠 Exploration & Development Highlights
Midland et SOQUEM annoncent de nouveaux résultats jusqu’à 27,60% Cu et 0,88 g/t Au sur la zone de cuivre, or et Éléments de Terre Rare de Malaco Mountain dans la Fosse du Labrador
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💰 Financings & Market Moves
🧬 Corporate & Policy
// The Hustle
I learned a few things this week that just seem out of place for a Kootenay kid like me.
1. If your neighbour is yelling profanities at the back seat of their car and screaming for them to “get the F out” don’t assume they’re bad parents.
2. I was not prepared for just how big a racoon is. In my head I had them pegged somewhere near a small dog. No, they’re much bigger.
3. If you leave your door to your car open while you’re unloading groceries you might attract some unwanted help.
These are things I learned simultaneously. I have a feeling I’m really going to enjoy life down here for a while, things are new and interesting.
Oh! I almost forgot, if you have a business in Sparwood, please let me know the name of your company - something fun is going live this week.
Catch you all Friday,
- Lee