The M&E Dispatch // 128

The Carney Doctrine: Speed, Security, and the New Rules of the Game

Hello Everyone,

A loud revolution is underway in Ottawa, and it has nothing to do with partisan politics. It’s a fundamental rewiring of how Canada builds, finances, and talks about its natural resources.

Since taking office, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has replaced the old "climate-first" playbook with a new doctrine built on three words: speed, security, and partnership.

For those of us in the mining and energy sectors, the signal is deafening. The government is no longer just a regulator; it’s an active investor picking winners. And the companies that are winning right now aren't just the ones with the best geology or the lowest AISC.

They are the ones telling the best story.

Here is what the new playbook looks like on the ground.

1. The "Fast-Track" is for Nation Builders
(Not Just Miners)

The establishment of the Major Projects Office (MPO) in Calgary was the first clue. Carney isn’t waiting for projects to qualify; he’s curating a VIP list.

Look at the first tranche of projects fast-tracked by the MPO. Canada Nickel’s Crawford Project isn’t on that list just because it has a lot of nickel. It’s there because they stopped talking about "grade and tonnage" and started talking about "building the largest carbon storage facility in Canada." They positioned themselves as a solution to the steel industry's climate problem, not just a hole in the ground near Timmins.

The Pivot:
If you are still marketing your project based solely on a PEA or a technical report, you are invisible. The new capital flows to projects that look inevitable. Your investor deck needs to pivot from "We have a great asset" to "We are a piece of national infrastructure."

2. The $10B Partnership Standard

The expansion of the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program to $10 billion is the single biggest shift in project financing in a decade. But the government isn’t handing this money out for participation agreements or impact benefit agreements. They are funding ownership.

The gold standard right now is Cedar LNG. It wasn’t sold as a corporate energy project with Indigenous "buy-in." It was sold as the Haisla Nation’s project, with Pembina Pipeline as the partner. That distinction matters. The narrative wasn’t "consultation," it was "economic self-determination."

The Pivot:
A signed MOU is just paperwork. The companies unlocking this federal capital are the ones co-creating content with their partners. They aren’t issuing press releases about First Nations; they are shooting joint videos with Chiefs and Councils. If your partnership exists only in a legal filing, you’re missing the social proof required to access the guarantee.

3. The "Clean Barrel" Rebrand

The "Grand Bargain" with Alberta, trading the emissions cap for a carbon price and CCUS, has created a massive communications gap.

The industry won the policy battle, but it’s losing the explanation war. "Enhanced Oil Recovery" (EOR) sounds terrifying to a Toronto voter or a European pension fund. But "Net-Zero Production" sounds like the future.

The Pathways Alliance is trying to thread this needle, but the real winners will be the mid-caps who can explain it simply.

The Pivot:
Can you explain your carbon strategy in 60 seconds without using the words "45Q tax credit" or "pore space sequestration"? The market is desperate for "Clean Energy" plays that aren't renewables. If you can explain how your gas or oil project lowers global emissions in plain English, you become investable to a whole new class of capital.

4. The "Secure Supplier" Premium

Finally, look at the G7’s new $1.4 billion initiative. Carney and his allies aren't buying commodities; they are buying insurance against China.

Junior miners often make the mistake of pitching to geologists. But right now, the most important audience is the geopolitical strategist. A lithium deposit in Northern Quebec isn’t just a battery input; it’s a NATO-compliant supply chain.

The Pivot:
Audit your website today. Does it sound like a geology lecture, or does it sound like a national security briefing? The companies attracting government attention are upgrading their language. They are explicitly positioning themselves as the "Secure Supplier of Choice" for the G7.

The Bottom Line

The capital is there,$1 trillion in infrastructure spending, $10 billion in loan guarantees, and billions more in G7 funds. But it is not flowing to the quiet operators.

It is flowing to the companies that have aligned their story with the government’s "Nation Building" ambition.

The train is leaving the station. Make sure your narrative is strong enough to get you a seat.

Note from Lee: if you want help with this all I have a deal running at 7am to help with the kind of thing that get’s you attention and puts you on the CarnDar™ (which is what I am calling Mark Carney’s Radar. Indulge me 😉 ).

// The Dirt

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🧬 Corporate & Policy

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// The Hustle

Frankly, it’s tough right now for a lot of you and at times I’m sure it can feel like you’re screaming into the void trying to get attention.

I get it. For 20 years now marketing and development has been my game and in the last year we’ve seen the world rapidly transform and rewriting most of what we know.

There’s one thing that has stood the test of time, literally, and it’s what connects us all. Storytelling.

If you want to see how 2026 can be very different for you, hit reply or text me 250-417-5497 and I’ll help you craft a story for your business that puts you on the CarnDar™ (see, it works).

2026 is the year of the airhorn. The loudest, and longest, takes all.

- Lee