The M&E Dispatch // 127

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Hello Everyone,

Note: There’s some irony with today’s advertiser, they were scheduled before this all happened yesterday - still, perfect fit, just kinda humorous timing if you see what they’re all about. 

Steven Guilbeault quit cabinet on Wednesday. Not over scandal, over policy.

The former Environment Minister walked away from Mark Carney's government hours after the PM signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Alberta that fundamentally rewrites the rules for Canadian energy.

Well, the papers have landed on desks, signed and collated. But what does it actually contain?

REGULATORY RELIEF

Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) – Immediately Suspended
The Trudeau-era rules requiring fossil fuel power phase-out by 2035 are gone in Alberta. AESO estimated they'd cost the province $30 billion and push electricity prices up 35%. Alberta can now keep building gas-fired generation, which means AI data centers requiring massive consistent power can actually consider the province.

Oil & Gas Emissions Cap – Permanently Eliminated
The federal cap that would have placed absolute limits on sector emissions is dead. Alberta and industry called it a "production cap in disguise." It's now replaced entirely by industrial carbon pricing under Alberta's TIER system. After a decade of federal-provincial warfare, this is Alberta's biggest win.

THE PIPELINE (THAT DOESN'T EXIST YET)

New Pacific Coast Pipeline – 300,000 to 400,000 bpd Capacity
Privately-financed pipeline to carry bitumen to BC coast for Asian markets. Goal: reduce Canada's 95% U.S. export dependency and add capacity beyond Trans Mountain, which hits its limit by 2027-28.

The Catch – No Private Proponent Committed
Both Carney and Smith said it out loud: no company has stepped forward to build this multi-billion dollar project. Alberta must submit a proposal by July 1, 2026. Construction target: 2029. I'll believe it when I see a proponent with actual capital.

Fast-Track Approval – Major Projects Office "National Interest" Designation
Two-year approval timeline with potential exemptions from Fisheries Act, Species at Risk Act, and Impact Assessment Act. This precedent applies to critical minerals and other major projects deemed essential to economic security.

THE CARBON CAPTURE LINKAGE

Pathways Alliance CCUS Project – $16.5 Billion
Six oil sands majors (Canadian Natural, Cenovus, ConocoPhillips Canada, Imperial, MEG, Suncor) will capture CO2 from 20+ facilities and pipe it 400km to Cold Lake for underground storage. Target: 10-12 megatonnes annually by 2030, roughly one-eighth of oil sands emissions.

The Deal's Lynchpin – One Can't Happen Without the Other
No carbon capture, no pipeline. And no pipeline, no carbon capture funding. Ottawa and Alberta must negotiate a trilateral agreement with Pathways by April 1, 2026 to start implementation by 2027. If this doesn't materialize, the whole MOA collapses.

THE CARBON PRICING TRADE-OFF

Industrial Carbon Price Increase – Minimum $130/tonne
Alberta must raise its rate from the current frozen $95/tonne. Timeline and future trajectory to be negotiated by April 1, 2026. Federal government originally wanted $170/tonne by 2030, so Alberta gets a discount and delay.

TIER Market Dysfunction – $18/tonne Credit Price
Alberta's carbon credit market has collapsed to one-fifth of the effective carbon price, creating zero incentive for emissions reduction investment. If the new agreement doesn't fix this, the whole "climate credibility through carbon pricing" story falls apart.

BC AND FIRST NATIONS (WHO WEREN'T CONSULTED)

Premier David Eby – "Energy Vampire"
BC wasn't at the negotiating table and found out with everyone else. Eby calls it a distraction with "no proponent, no route, no money, no First Nations support" that threatens viable LNG and critical minerals projects already underway.

Oil Tanker Moratorium Act – Federal Commitment to "Adjust"
The 2019 ban on crude tankers along BC's northern coast would need modification. Coastal First Nations (Haida, Heiltsuk, others) are absolutely opposed and state flatly they'll never allow oil tankers in their waters.

Indigenous Co-Ownership – Required But Undefined
The MOA mandates Indigenous equity ownership and economic benefits, but specifics are vague. Consultation after the deal is signed isn't consultation, it's notification. Expect legal challenges and protests.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE BROADER SECTOR

Critical Minerals and Major Projects – Fast-Track Template
Ring of Fire in Ontario is already named as a potential candidate. Lithium, graphite, rare earths, if you can make the case your project serves national security, you might get the same two-year approval treatment.

Saskatchewan Already Negotiating – Carbon Pricing Trade-Off Model Spreads
Premier Scott Moe is in discussions about reintroducing industrial carbon pricing in exchange for regulatory relief similar to Alberta's. Other provinces will test this formula.

Indigenous Co-Ownership Now Table Stakes
Equity participation and economic benefits aren't nice-to-haves anymore, they're conditions of approval for major resource projects.

// The Dirt

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// The Hustle

The boys are engaging in their own bit of inter provincial diplomacy with a short meeting with a team from Quebec today. Winter has hit here in Southern Ontario and as a “High Altitude Arid Climate BC Resident” I was not prepared for what 3c, 80km/h winds and 97% humidity would feel like…

At least my knuckles are not dry and cracked this Winter…

Also, Thundersnow?!? Crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJt4nV6hM1Y

Enjoy the weekend!

- Lee