The M&E Dispatch // 112

Hello Everyone,

Last week, while Beijing announced record-breaking $124 billion in Belt and Road investments, the U.S. government quietly took a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals for US$35.6 million and announced they're building a road in Alaska to access the Ambler mining district.

Sound familiar?

It should, because that's exactly what China's been doing for the past 12 years.

The difference is, when China builds infrastructure and takes equity stakes in strategic projects, Washington calls it "debt trap diplomacy." When Washington does it, they call it "securing critical supply chains for democratic allies."

Same playbook, different flag.

The New Great Game

Here's what's really happening: Both superpowers just figured out that in an era where supply chains equal national security, you can't just buy commodities, you have to own the mines.

China's been playing this game for over a decade:

• $21.4 billion in overseas mining investment in 2024

• $23 billion invested in Kazakhstan alone in the first half of 2025

• 80% of critical mineral production in the DRC owned or operated by Chinese companies

And now they're tightening the screws. This month, China extended its rare earth export controls to include imported materials, requiring monthly reporting and applying quota restrictions to both domestic production and imported ore for refining.

Dysprosium prices tripled in Europe after April's restrictions. The message from China is pretty clear: We built the Belt and Road to control supply chains. Now we're using that control.

The Canadian Question

For Canadian mining companies, this creates a dangerous dynamic.

When both superpowers are competing to own pieces of your projects rather than just buy your output, it sounds like good news. More capital, more competition for deals, higher valuations.

But here's the risk: What happens when foreign equity ownership becomes foreign boardroom control?

Doug Burgum wasn't subtle about American intentions: "This investment will help secure critical mineral supplies and that ownership in that company will benefit the American people".

Replace "American people" with "Chinese people" and you have Beijing's standard BRI justification.

The strategic question for Canada: How do we benefit from superpower competition for our resources without losing control of our own resource destiny?

The Sovereignty Trade-Off

There's a fundamental difference between selling output and selling equity.

When you sell copper concentrate to China or lithium carbonate to the U.S., you still own the mine. When you sell equity stakes to foreign governments, even friendly ones, you're selling decision-making power.

China learned this lesson early. They don't just buy African copper, they own the mines, the railways, and the ports. They control the entire value chain.

Now Washington is learning the same lesson with Canadian mining companies.

You have to wonder, with this are we teaching both sides how to own us instead of buy from us?

What Comes Next

Canada sits on some of the world's largest untapped critical mineral reserves. We have stable jurisdictions, mining expertise, and both superpowers want access.

That's our leverage, if we use it strategically.

But if we simply auction off equity stakes to the highest bidder, we risk becoming a resource colony with better marketing. Foreign-owned mines shipping to foreign-controlled supply chains, with Canadian shareholders getting dividend checks.

The uranium market hitting $82.63/lb, the highest of 2025, shows what happens when strategic stockpiling becomes more important than market fundamentals.

When governments start buying equity stakes in your mining companies, when they start building infrastructure to access your deposits, when they start treating your resources as their national security assets, you're not just in the commodity business anymore.

You're in the sovereignty business.

And that's a game where the house always wins, unless you own the house.

// The Dirt

B2Gold Achieves Commercial Production at Goose Mine
Commercial production reached with ore processing at 183 tonnes per hour from September 19 to October 2.
🔗 https://www.b2gold.com/news-media/news-releases/news-details/2025/B2Gold-Achieves-Commercial-Production-at-the-Goose-Mine/default.aspx

China's BRI Mining Investment Hits $21.4B Record
Overseas mining investment reached new heights in 2024, focusing on copper, lithium, and rare earth projects.
🔗 https://www.mining.com/chinas-mining-investment-under-belt-and-road-initiative-sets-new-record-report/

Kazakhstan Attracts $23B in Chinese Investment
First half 2025 sees record engagement, led by $12B aluminum complex and copper sector investments.
🔗 https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/china-kazakhstan-bri-metals-mining-2025/

Uranium Prices Hit 2025 High of $82.63/lb
28.7% jump driven by institutional buying and strategic stockpiling by physical uranium funds.
🔗 https://www.ans.org/news/article-7425/uranium-prices-up-could-demand-more-than-double/

Anglo American Eyes Teck Resources Deal
Advanced talks could create $50+ billion mining giant in biggest sector transaction in over a decade.
🔗 https://www.mining.com/web/anglo-american-nears-deal-to-acquire-teck-resources/

Critical Minerals GDP Contribution Rises to $20.9B
Statistics Canada reports 2023 production up from $18.5B in 2019, reflecting growing strategic importance.
🔗 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/251006/dq251006a-eng.htm

Sitting in Starbucks this morning, watching the rain swab the deck of the Federal Thunder Bay and pondering about ownership versus access. In a world where everyone's building their own version of the Belt and Road, the real question isn't who's buying our commodities.

It's who's buying our boardrooms.

And whether we'll still have a seat at the table when the music stops.

Have a great week everyone,
- Lee

P.S The boys went 1-3 this past weekend in NY, tough competition and their only win came in the consolation game. As the only Canadian team there they give it all they could, pride on the line. Next time.

// The Hustle

- Lee