The M&E Dispatch // 077

Hello Everyone,

I’ve spent the last few days locked into a two-hour, around-the-clock medication shuffle for my son, and somewhere in that fugue state I stumbled upon chatter of Elon and Donald duking it out, and honestly wondered if I’d wandered into a fever dream.

But it’s real, and it could ripple all the way to Canada’s doorstep, our companies, our miners, our satellite hookups.

Here’s what I think we need to be aware of.

1. Reassessing Critical-Mineral Demand If U.S. EV Incentives Disappear
When Elon Musk publicly labeled Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” a “disgusting abomination,” he wasn’t just picking a fight over fiscal policy, he was pointing a spotlight at the very incentives driving EV adoption. For Canadian miners of lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, any rollback or outright elimination of U.S. federal tax credits could trigger a domino effect on pricing, exploration budgets and project timelines.

• Immediate Pricing Ripples
  U.S. EV tax credits currently shave $7,500–$12,500 off sticker prices. If automakers lose that lever, consumer demand could dip, and battery-metal spot prices typically follow. For juniors already budgeting 2025 production based on $10–$12/lb lithium carbonate, a sudden 10 % drop in EV take-up could cut those forecasts to $8–$9/lb.

• Portfolio Pressure on Junior Miners
  Small-cap explorers, particularly those without off-take agreements, feel this squeeze first. Projects in Québec (graphite) and Manitoba (lithium) that penciled out at tighter margins might face pushback from investors demanding higher returns or shorter timelines. Start-ups without deep pockets for buffering will need to reassess drilling schedules and potentially stagger permitting steps.

• Global Demand Isn’t Tied Solely to U.S. Policy
  Europe’s Green Deal and China’s NEV (New Energy Vehicle) quotas mean that a U.S. slowdown won’t kill demand overnight. But Canada’s advantage, proximity, political stability, and stable power grids, could become even more critical as multinational automakers look to diversify supply chains away from politically volatile jurisdictions.

• What we can/should do

  • Stress Test Mine Plans: Rerun cash-flow models assuming a 20–30 % drop in U.S. EV demand. How many years of runway do you have before margins vanish?

  • Lock in Off-Takes or Blended Sales: If you haven’t already, explore spot versus contract blends with European or Asian smelters.

  • Engage with Ottawa: Federal policymakers may be coaxed into “top-up” programs for critical minerals if U.S. support truly evaporates. Make your case now.

2. The Geopolitics of Green Energy: Musk vs. Trump as a Case Study
A public spat between a former president and the world’s richest person isn’t just tabloid fodder, it’s a live case study in how leadership style can shape energy policy and trade flows.

Musk’s long game has always involved accelerating solar, batteries and rockets; Trump’s instinct is to double down on fossil fuels and blunt “government overreach”. We should us this feud to benchmark where Canada fits into the shifting sh**show.

• Policy Volatility and Supply-Chain Realignment
  If the U.S. government veers away from green incentives, Canadian provinces might feel compelled to fill the gap. Québec could fast-track battery-grade graphite permits, Alberta might double down on hydrogen hubs, and Ontario could underwrite new SMR (small modular reactor) initiatives. In each case, Ottawa’s Critical Minerals Strategy (launched early 2025) gains added urgency to lock in investment before U.S. subsidies vanish.

• Trade-War Echoes
  Remember 2018’s steel and aluminum tariffs? Musk’s accusation that Trump is withholding Epstein files to protect himself is loud, but the real sting lies in the threat to yank SpaceX contracts and Tesla subsidies. If Washington slams the door, automakers and battery manufacturers will look north, or to Europe and Asia, for stability. Canadian policymakers need to articulate clear counter-offers (e.g., provincial EV rebates, streamlined permitting) so that global OEMs don’t willingly skip past U.S. facilities and plant their next Gigafactory on Canadian soil.

• What we can/should do

  • Watch Ottawa’s Next Moves: Does Budget 2025 include an “EV credit top-up” or extra R&D grants? Those announcements likely tie back to U.S. clamour.

  • Diversify Customer Bases: If you sell spodumene concentrate or nickel sulphate, start conversations with European automakers and battery alliances plugging into Germany’s Gigafactory corridor.

  • Coalitions Over Lone-Wolf Advocacy: Mining associations (PDAC, MAC) need a unified message: Canada stands ready to be the safety valve for North American cleantech supply chains. Anything less invites uncertainty.

3. Satellite Dependencies in Remote Operations (Bonus Conflict!)
Elon Musk’s “decommission Dragon” quip was hyperbole, but it underscores a crucial reality: suppliers of satellite Internet and Earth-observation data, led by SpaceX’s Starlink, have become linchpins for remote mining operations. From real-time tailings-pond monitoring to telemedicine in fly-in camps, millions flow through L-band and Ka-band beams. And yet, as Louisiana’s recent ban on “Chem Trails” over their state shows, any political squabble can inadvertently snuff out connectivity in remote corners, north of Steen River included.

• Why Starlink Matters to M&E
  Remote mines increasingly rely on low-latency broadband for:

  1. Telemetry & IoT: Continuous data streams from vibration sensors, pump monitors and gas analyzers go through Starlink terminals, if connectivity falters, alert systems go dark.

  2. Geospatial Imagery: SpaceX-contracted satellite constellations (and third-party imagery through SpaceX ground stations) feed geological-mapping software. Losing a Dragon or Starship release window could slow imagery refresh rates by weeks.

  3. Operational Resilience: In sudden crises, wildfires, flash floods or rail shutdowns, satellite links are often the only lifeline between camp and IPAWS or provincial emergency centers. No Starlink means no way to send an SOS from an ice road cut off by spring runoff.

• The “Chem-Trail” Risk & Political Noise
  A state legislature passing a law banning “Chem Trails” may seem quaint, but it signals how easily conspiracy politics can bleed into telecom regulations. If a governor decides that Starlink is “too unregulated” or “spreading disinformation,” they could ban or restrict ground-station installations, meaning remote camps (or dozens of tailings-pond sites in British Columbia’s backcountry) lose Data Transmission, Facebook, email and video calls overnight.

• What we can/should do

  • Multi-Path Connectivity: Combine Starlink with LEO-agnostic terminals (OneWeb, Telesat’s Lightspeed) so a single political whim doesn’t sever all comms.

  • Regulatory Watchlist: Keep an eye on state/provincial bills targeting “misinformation” or “unlicensed spectrum”, often a backdoor to blocking satellite ISPs.

  • Local Backup Plans: Train site crews on offline data-buffer protocols and local server caching, so brief outages don’t result in total operational paralysis.

Bottom Line for M&E Readers:
The Musk–Trump feud may look like a high-stakes celebrity showdown, but its aftershocks cut through every layer of mining and energy: from the price boards in Toronto to the heli-pad of an Arctic drill camp. By stress-testing your mineral forecasts, engaging Ottawa on trade and incentives, and shoring up satellite dependencies, you’ll navigate today’s drama without being caught flat-footed when the next political twist arrives.

// The Dirt

Canterra Minerals and High Tide Resources to Combine
The all-share merger will see Canterra acquire all outstanding shares of High Tide, creating a new Atlantic-focused critical minerals explorer.
Read more → https://canterraminerals.com/news/canterra-and-high-tide-to-combine-creating-an-atlantic-focused-critical-minerals-explorer/

Grid Battery Metals Mobilizes Drill Program
Drilling begins at the Texas Spring Lithium Project in Nevada, testing multiple high-priority targets across the 2024 permitted area.
Read more → https://gridbatterymetals.com/news/grid-battery-metals-mobilizes-drill-program-at-texas-spring-lithium-project-in-nevada/

Patriot Battery Metals Advances Environmental Work at Corvette
Baseline data collection continues for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment of the Corvette Project in Quebec’s Eeyou Istchee James Bay region.
Read more → https://patriotbatterymetals.com/news/news-releases/patriot-advances-environmental-and-social-impact-assessment-work-at-the-corvette-project/

Aranjin Resources Begins Exploration at Sharga Copper Project
The 2024 field season kicks off in Mongolia with mapping, geophysics, and geochemical sampling designed to advance the project toward drilling.
Read more → https://www.aranjinresources.com/news/aranjin-resources-begins-exploration-at-sharga-copper-project/

Well, time for more meds - recovery is hard for a teenage kid, not much I can do but help him stay the course.

Have a great weekend all.

- Lee