The M&E Dispatch // 068

Hello Everyone,

This past weekend at OHA Edmonton’s ID camp (where Sawyer had a great showing at the Royal Glenora Club), I spoke with the owner of a valve control company. Their story was one I’ve now heard too many times: projects that have been on the books for years are suddenly being shelved or scaled back, not because of bad planning, but because of tariffs.

When the price of a multi-million-dollar piece of equipment suddenly jumps by 25% or more, the ripple effect is massive. The result? Cost overruns too big to swallow. Procurement officers stuck in the crosshairs. Capital expenditure plans thrown into chaos.

And now, just as shovels were meant to hit the ground for the season, many of them are staying in the shed.

This isn’t just a story of international politics, it’s a story playing out on our shop floors, in our fabrication yards, and on job sites from Alberta to Atlantic Canada.

Trump’s in a bind.

If these tariffs are a negotiating tactic, then manufacturers are left to sit on their hands, scale back, and wait it out. But if they’re permanent, which some hawks in Washington are betting on, then manufacturers have no choice but to start planning a return to U.S. soil. That’s a multi-year play with massive capital implications.

And that’s why today’s face-to-face between Prime Minister Carney and President Trump matters. It may not deliver a solution today, but it will set the tone for what happens next.

If We’re Reading the Timeline Right...

Here’s what Canadian manufacturers could expect based on how things shake out:

➤ Scenario 1: A De-escalation Signal

Tariffs eased or removed.

• 0–3 months: Confidence returns.

• 3–6 months: Paused projects resume.

• 6–12 months: Procurement backlog clears.

➤ Scenario 2: Status Quo, “Wait It Out”

Tariffs hold, but are framed as short-term.

• 0–6 months: Austerity.

• 6–12 months: Alternative sourcing explored.

• 12–18 months: Industry-wide reassessment.

➤ Scenario 3: Tariffs Go Full-Time

Permanent shift in policy.

• 0–6 months: Restructuring plans start.

• 6–18 months: Job losses, relocation.

• 18–36 months: Long-term sector contraction.

Regardless of the Path Forward…

It’s not a short turnaround, no matter how today’s meeting goes. We’re in it for the long haul now, and the reality is that even in the best-case scenario, recovery takes time. Supply chains don’t snap back overnight. Paused projects require re-approvals. Teams that have been downsized or redirected take months to reassemble, and pricing volatility will linger well into next year.

In other words: today might signal the direction, but it won’t provide the solution. For manufacturers, builders, and suppliers, this is now an exercise in resilience and adaptation. It’s about triaging what can move ahead, what needs redesign, and how to keep people employed through the uncertainty. And for anyone who thought we were still playing a short game, welcome to the new calendar. Everything takes longer now.

I Want to Hear from You

If you’re seeing this play out where you work, I want to hear it.

• Have you had to hit pause on a project this season?

• Are U.S. tariffs changing the way you're sourcing parts or bidding work?

• Have client budgets been pulled or restructured due to unforeseen cost spikes?

• Are you seeing delays in delivery timelines, re-quotes, or RFQs going cold?

Firsthand accounts are how we make sense of the bigger picture, so whether it’s good, bad, or somewhere in between, hit reply and share it.

I hope today’s Trump–Carney meeting is broadcast live. Zelensky-style.
Because whatever’s said in that room today will echo through factories, yards, and boardrooms for years to come. I’ve got my popcorn ready.

Let me know what’s happening where you are. I read every reply.

// The Dirt

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Tocvan Releases Investor Webinar Recording
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Graphano Launches NI 43-101 Resource Work at Black Pearl
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Black Iron Supports U.S./Ukraine Minerals Deal
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Apollo Silver Appoints Ross McElroy CEO
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Sounds like we’ll be back to the Island in the coming few weeks, have a couple teams who’d like to meet with Sawyer. I’m on the fence if we should drive or fly this time around.

It’s such a glorious time to drive through this province. Not many Boats and RVs yet on the move and more wonder for the eye than I think anyone can truly take in.

Decisions, decisions. Have a great week all.

- Lee