The M&E Dispatch // 055

Hello Everyone,

This week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith didn’t just escalate her government’s opposition to the federal emissions cap — she handed it a gatekeeping role, complete with locked doors and a sign that reads “No Feds Allowed”.

Quick Takeaways

• Alberta draws a line: New legislation would block federal staff from accessing oil & gas sites and emissions data.

• Data control = power: Premier Smith wants Alberta to be the “single source of truth” on emissions reporting.

• Oil reserves revised: Province adds 7 billion barrels and doubles gas reserves — aims to sell bitumen directly.

• Pipelines re-enter chat: Alberta calls for east, west, and north routes to support expanded production.

• Cap clash continues: Emissions cap seen as an economic threat; Ottawa says growth still possible under limits.

• Political message > legal certainty: Experts question enforceability, but the bill makes Alberta’s stance loud and clear.

Tabled Wednesday, the Critical Infrastructure Defence Amendment Act, 2025 proposes to bar federal employees from accessing oil and gas facilities and the emissions data they contain. According to Smith, this isn’t just about jurisdictional squabbles. It’s about control over the data that informs national climate policy — and, by extension, production ceilings.

“If we’re going to have these kinds of disputes,” she said, “we know there needs to be a single source of truth… and we’re going to collect that.”

The move reframes Alberta’s long-running battle with Ottawa over emissions as a matter of data sovereignty. Emissions tracking — once the purview of collaborative environmental policy — is being recast as a matter of economic and constitutional defense.

While legal scholars have already raised flags, arguing the province can’t unilaterally bind federal officers, the real impact may not play out in courtrooms — but in boardrooms, forecasting models, and investment memos.

Control the narrative, control the cap

At the heart of this maneuver is a distrust of how federal agencies may interpret, apply, or communicate emissions data. Smith has accused Ottawa of selectively using figures to push political agendas. In response, Alberta now wants to intercept emissions reporting at the source, have it filtered through provincial hands, and then relayed to the feds.

In practice, that may mean companies find themselves stuck between two levels of government, each issuing different expectations — and consequences.

Critics say the bill is performative, designed to rally support rather than alter actual legal powers. But even symbolic moves can shift real-world outcomes when they shape perception, stall regulations, or reframe the legitimacy of federal action. In a sector where investor confidence often hinges on policy stability, this kind of friction matters.

More barrels, more ambition

Coinciding with the legislative announcement, Alberta also revealed a not-insignificant “discovery”: seven billion additional barrels of oil, and a doubling of its natural gas reserves. Commissioned by the Alberta Energy Regulator, the McDaniel report adds weight to the province’s argument that the country’s energy future shouldn’t be throttled — especially when demand, globally, is anything but declining.

The province has begun collecting barrels of bitumen in lieu of royalties, and says it’s preparing to sell roughly two million barrels per month of this government-owned oil on the international market — a shift from previous focus on lighter conventional blends. The government also revealed recent talks with an unnamed global petrochemical multinational about potential offtake.

If Alberta sees itself as a sovereign energy state within Canada, this is its foreign trade policy in action.

All roads lead to pipelines

Of course, marketing more oil means moving more oil. And pipelines — dormant politically, but never out of mind — are again central to the narrative. Smith used the moment to push for east-west-north construction, arguing that with growing instability in the U.S. under a new round of tariff threats, energy independence is now a matter of national urgency.

The government claims the emissions cap — even in its proposed form — will cost the country 54,000 jobs and $20 billion in GDP by 2032. The federal Parliamentary Budget Officer’s report, which prompted the claim, paints a less dramatic picture: production will still grow under the cap, just not as quickly as it would without constraints.

But again, perception is the point.

Zooming out

With a new prime minister (Mark Carney) still settling into office and an election on the horizon, Smith’s latest moves serve a dual purpose: reinforcing Alberta’s longstanding narrative of constitutional self-determination — and positioning the province as an indispensable actor in global energy markets.

The legislation is a warning shot, yes. But it’s also a pitch: join us, or get out of the way.

Either way, it marks a sharp turn in the data and jurisdiction battleground that will shape how Canada — and the world — accounts for, values, and limits fossil fuel production in the decade ahead.

// The Dirt

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Angkor Advances Soil Sampling in Cambodia
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Angkor’s EnerCam Starts Environmental Assessment
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// The Hustle

A quick personal note to close things out: my son’s team took home silver at the U15 T2 Provincial Championships in Nanaimo this week, falling 3–2 to South Delta in a hard-fought final.

While it’s not the gold they were chasing, silver is still a precious metal — and one he’ll cherish for decades to come, once the sting wears off.

Have a great weekend all, going to spend some time with the kid. I hear yard work helps heal the soul 😉

- Lee